🌱 The Green Transition does end — and first movers get rich
🌱 Who really wins the Green Transition? (And who pays 💸)
Ever worry your country (or your money) might end up on the loser’s list as the world scrambles to go green? 😬
This week, I’ve got something big for you.
🌍 The AWTY Green Transition Index: real data showing which countries are almost done, who’s stuck, and why it matters for your job, your investments, and your future bills.
🇩🇰 Some countries are cashing in already.
Others are walking blindfolded into the next economic crisis.
Over 40.000 data points, collected and processed over the last year, to give us an accurate measure of “Are We There Yet" or, at least, getting close?
👉 The biggest surprise?
It’s not the transition that’s costly, it’s not transitioning.
1. 🔥 Think the Green Transition is just a never-ending feel-good story?
Some countries are getting close - and the winners will be cashing in on it.
Most people laugh off the Green Transition.
“There’s no ending in sight. Nothing will really change.”
Others just got so used to the “Green Transition” talk that they don’t even listen.
They’re dead wrong.
My new AWTY Green Transition Index proves it.
Some countries are getting close.
And whoever finishes first will have a lot to bank on.
See last week’s issue for a definition of what a successful transition looks like.
2. 🧭 Green Transition: A Finish Line With Big Rewards
This isn’t just climate policy: it’s green transition economics.
Countries pushing ahead are redesigning how they create value, reducing sustainability risks, and securing future-proof investments.
These economic transitions are shifting who leads global markets and who slips into painful development traps.
Denmark, Ireland, Costa Rica, … they’re racing ahead.
Not with speeches. With hard numbers: decoupling growth from emissions, securing natural capital, and building clean, efficient economies.
The last to get there? They’ll pay higher energy bills, face brutal climate risks, and get hammered by investors fleeing fossil-heavy markets.
Bottom line?
The Green Transition does end.
And it won’t wait for slow movers.
The winners will cash in.
The laggards will foot the bill.
3. 💥 The Data: Who’s Winning, Who’s Stuck, and What’s Next
Let’s break this down with real numbers and names.
Denmark, Ireland, Costa Rica, Luxembourg, Malta, Switzerland: they’re topping the AWTY Green Transition Index.
They didn’t just cut emissions.
They transformed energy systems, boosted efficiency, protected forests, and attracted private green capital.
That means they now pay less for power, face fewer supply shocks, and lead in exporting clean tech.
Meanwhile, Romania, Albania, Colombia, Kenya, Ethiopia: they’re not perfect, but they’re punching way above expectations.
Romania nearly tripled its renewable share.
Albania slashed resource depletion.
Kenya’s geothermal boom makes it one of Africa’s quiet leaders.
These countries are quietly building resilience, the kind investors chase and insurers give discounts for.
Then look at Brazil.
A country everyone associates with deforestation horror stories.
Yet it’s also massively expanding renewables, especially wind and hydro, pulling it up the index despite Amazon setbacks.
That’s the messy truth: transitions aren’t clean.
But the countries that diversify fastest win.
Now the risks.
The Cayman Islands, American Samoa, Iceland (yes, Iceland, thanks to weird financial & energy distortions), plus places like Guam and the British Virgin Islands, all sit at the bottom.
High fossil reliance, low diversification, little green investment.
They’re on the wrong end of future capital flows.
As global banks tighten climate risk exposure, these places pay more to borrow… if they can borrow at all.
Short case study: Costa Rica.
In the 1980s, it was a struggling agricultural exporter, deeply dependent on imported oil.
Today? Nearly 100% of its electricity comes from renewables.
It leveraged that to brand itself a “green hub”, drawing eco-tourism, clean manufacturing, and climate funds.
GDP per capita more than doubled since the 90s, with lower volatility.
That’s what an advanced transition buys you: resilience and fresh revenue.
Once heavily reliant on agriculture, it transformed through smart green transition economics.
Now, it’s a poster child for how economic transitions can future-proof a country against sustainability risks.
Meanwhile, oil-heavy nations risk getting stuck in development traps, exposed to shocks they can’t absorb (think Russia, Venezuela, Angola, …).
The biggest myth about the Green Transition is that it’s expensive.
The truth? It’s a hell of a lot riskier and costlier not to transition.
4. ⚔️ The Counterpoint: “It’s Too Costly” (Or So They Say)
Critics love to wave spreadsheets and warn:
“Green transitions are too expensive. Countries have bigger problems right now.”
They point to up-front costs: building renewables, modern grids, investing in forests.
Or they argue poorer nations should delay because “growth first, climate later.”
But here’s what they miss.
The biggest costs come from doing nothing.
Fossil imports drain budgets.
Climate disasters destroy homes, crops, factories.
Investors demand higher premiums to offset carbon and resource risks.
Insurance firms have already hiked premiums in fossil-heavy or climate-exposed regions.
And some are flat-out refusing coverage.
Then there’s the hidden productivity drag.
Economies that rely on cheap resource depletion or inefficient energy can look fine… until volatility hits.
When oil spikes, or droughts cripple hydropower, they take huge hits to GDP.
Meanwhile, countries with efficient, diversified, renewables-heavy systems?
They barely flinch.
The data from the AWTY Index is blunt:
the nations scoring high aren’t just cutting emissions.
They’re growing cleaner, cheaper, and more stable.
That’s why funds, insurers, and even sovereign wealth managers are quietly steering money toward them.
5. 🚀 The Payoff: Who Wins, Who Pays, and What You Can Do
Here’s the hard truth:
the Green Transition isn’t a never-ending story.
It ends.
And when it does, countries at the front lock in cheaper energy, safer investments, and new global markets.
The laggards? They’ll pay, through higher costs, stranded industries, and rising climate losses.
This isn’t abstract.
It hits your salary, your business, your pension, your house insurance.
If your country is on the winners’ list, you’re likely to see more stable jobs, steadier growth, and better living costs.
If it’s stuck, your money - and future - are exposed.
This is why I built the AWTY Green Transition Index: to see which economies are truly navigating these massive economic transitions, and which are sliding toward long-term development traps.
You can download the report here.
Want to protect your business, career, or portfolio? Understanding these shifts is the first step to building future-proof investments.
Want to see where your country really stands?
How it’s moved since 1990?
Or dig into the full dataset to run your own models or research?
🎯 The complete 2025 Green Transition Report drops this week, exclusively for paid members. All in the AWTY section of my Substack website.
Inside, you’ll get:
✅ The full ranking of every country.
✅ How scores evolved from 1990 to today.
✅ The raw dataset, perfect for research, policy briefs, or your own investment screens.
✅ Direct links to all the international sources so you can build on it.
Researchers are encouraged to use it (please cite me as your data source).
And this is just part 1.
Over the next weeks, I’ll publish the other pillars of the AWTY Index, covering the Digital Transition, New Globalization, War Economy, and Housing Crisis.
Each will reveal how countries are really navigating these global transitions, and who’s set to win or lose.
💥 Ready to future-proof your career, your business, or your portfolio with real data?
I just explained my opinion on this. But I might be wrong. 🤷♂️
🌱 Are the countries leading the Green Transition really buying themselves security and wealth - or are they just setting up new risks we can’t see yet?
💰 And who do you think will end up paying for the countries that refuse to adapt? The markets? Or people like us?
Drop your thoughts in the comments, share this on Substack Notes, or spark a debate on LinkedIn or X. 🔥
Polis Doxa: The Transitions Letter is a reader-supported publication.
Subscribe to stay ahead of global economic transitions and protect yourself from development traps.
👉 Next week, we’ll dive into something even more charged:
the AWTY - Transition to a War Economy Index.
You’ll see who’s gearing up, who’s exposed, and how it might rewrite markets and daily life. Stay tuned. 💣
🔄 Plus: reveal last week’s poll results
🔍 Last week, I asked which “transition trap” hits you hardest.
🗳️ 75% said “I feel overwhelmed by all 5.”
You’re not alone - that’s exactly why I created the AWTY Index: to cut through the noise and give you clear, data-backed answers.