This Index Predicts Whose Salary Will Grow (And Whose Won’t) - AWTY is public now

How 5 Hidden Shifts Are Already Re-Wiring Your Paycheck 💥

Fernando C. Gaspar

Aug 08, 2025

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Hey there 👋

Think transitions are still “coming”? They’re already shaping your job, your rent, and your portfolio.

In this week’s post:
🔥 The 5 transitions hitting you right now—and how to ride them
📉 Why ignoring them is costing you more than you think
📈 What the AWTY index reveals about who’s winning (and why it matters to you)

💡 One big idea to remember: “Transitions don’t announce themselves—they compound.”

Let’s break it down ⬇️

🧨 1. STOP Saying “Someday” — The Transitions Are Already Here

The biggest lie we tell ourselves?

“That won’t affect me yet.”

Green, Digital, New Globalization, War Economy, Housing... these aren’t buzzwords.
They are reorganizing power, income, and cost of living—right now.

And it’s not slow. It’s not theoretical.
It’s not optional.

The only question left is: Are you positioned for what’s next?

🧠 2. The AWTY Index: What It Measures, What It Means

The Are We There Yet? (AWTY) Index is a global benchmark tracking the speed and depth of five interconnected transitions:

Green
Digital
New Globalization
War Economy
Housing Crisis

Each country is scored between 0 (pre-transition) and 10 (fully transitioned).

So I decided we needed more measurements and less gurus. So I collected over 100k data points to build this index. What does it show?

In 1990, the global average was 4.2.
In 2024, it’s 6.5. 📈 (see the methodology, calculations and data sources in the paid version)

That’s not just progress. It’s proof.

The system has changed.
And if you're not adapting, you're absorbing the cost.

📊 3. Real-Life Evidence: 5 Transitions Already Reshaping Your World

This index doesn’t just track policy. It predicts your paycheck.

Each of the five transitions mapped by the AWTY Index—green, digital, globalization, war economy, and housing—has already crossed from theory into your bank account.

Below, we’ll walk through hard evidence from each vector.
By the end, you’ll know exactly who’s gaining, who’s lagging—and what that means for your income, investments, and freedom to choose.

Let’s start with the most visible: your job.

a. Digital Transition – The Wage Divide

Digital leaders like Denmark and South Korea generated 2.3× more high-paying jobs than the global average over the past decade (AWTY-DTI, 2025).
Countries that lag in digital infrastructure? They’re watching wages stagnate or decline.

For workers, the implication is clear:
If your skills don’t sync with the digital transition, your income will lag.

➡️ Time to learn one new tool, one new platform, or one new language.

b. Green Transition – Cost of Capital Advantage

Nations leading the green transition—like Finland and Ireland—cut carbon intensity by 40% more than their peers and now access 120 basis points cheaper capital (AWTY-GTI, 2025).

Translation:
If your investments or business model aren’t aligned with decarbonization, you’re already paying more—on everything from credit to insurance.

Green is not a virtue signal.
It’s an edge.

c. New Globalization – Supply Chain Stability

Countries ranked in the top quartile of the New Globalization Index avoided 25% of 2023 shipping delays (AWTY-NGI, 2025).
They also built better buffers for commodity shocks and geopolitical instability.

Think of that next time your shelves are empty.
Or your input costs spike.

The solution?
Diversify your suppliers and your markets.
And yes—your employer, too.

d. War Economy – Taxes & Safe Bets

Since 2019, defence burdens grew 0.7 percentage points of GDP across advanced economies (AWTY-WEI, 2025).
Spending is sticky, and the cost will flow somewhere.

Expect:
💸 Higher taxes
💰 Government-backed procurement cycles
🏦 Rising investor appetite for dual-use tech and strategic sectors

Want to shield your capital?
Follow the state.

e. Housing Crisis – The Income Trap

In cities where the Housing Crisis Index scored under 3, rent now swallows 44% of household income (AWTY-HCI, 2025).
That’s unsustainable.

People aren’t just priced out of cities.
They’re priced out of opportunity.

Your move?
Negotiate remote work.
Or consider geo-arbitrage.
Because your housing cost is your economic freedom.

✅ Are We There Yet? We’re Getting Close, And You're Already Paying For It

From 1990 to 2024, the global AWTY index rose 2.3 points.
That’s not noise - it’s structural transformation.

We’re not waiting for transitions.
We’re living them.

The question is no longer "if".
It’s "how fast?"
And "who gains?"

You can be among them.
But you must act.

🧱 4. Critics Say This Is Just Noise. Here’s Why They’re Wrong

Skeptics argue the transitions are uneven, reversible, or politically manipulated.
And yes, the backlash is real - look at ESG fatigue or rising protectionism.

But facts cut through noise:
🔹 Over 55 countries are converging on clean energy
🔹 Digital services now outpace manufacturing in export growth
🔹 Defence budgets have reset, not spiked temporarily
🔹 Major economies are nationalizing housing and reshaping zoning

Critics forget one thing:
Once capital compounds, systems don’t rewind.

Delaying your response isn’t skepticism.
It’s self-sabotage.

🧭 5. A Personal Strategy: 5 Steps to Thrive During Transition

Let’s get practical. Here’s how to use the AWTY insights to your advantage ⬇️

✅ 1. Audit Your Work & Skills
Ask: Is what I do transition-proof?
If not - learn one relevant digital skill this month.

✅ 2. Rebalance Your Portfolio
Shift 10–15% into green ETFs, defence-linked equities, or dual-use innovation funds.

✅ 3. Rethink Your Geography
Live where your housing cost doesn’t kill opportunity.
Work where your sector aligns with the transitions.

✅ 4. De-Risk Your Supply Chains
If you run a business or manage a team: diversify inputs.
If you’re an employee: bet on firms that do.

✅ 5. Follow the Data
Use the AWTY dashboard (available soon) to track where your country stands—monthly.

🎯 Because what gets measured gets managed.
And what gets managed gets monetized.

🚀 That’s all folks

I just explained my opinion on this.
But I might be wrong.
What’s your take? 🤔

💬 Do you think we’re too late to adapt?
📉 Are transitions overstated or underestimated in your country?

Drop a comment.