🧠 Globalization Rules Just Changed. Are You Ready?
The Post-Globalization Panic Is Missing the Real Opportunity
Hey reader, are exploding tariffs, war zones, and broken supply chains the end of globalization… or just the beginning of something quite different? 😳 Just another economic transition?
In today’s issue, I’m revealing 3 economic transitions that most leaders completely miss — and how they could save or destroy your next big decision. 🚨
🔥 Why this matters:
If your business, career, or investments rely on global flows, you’re flying blind unless you understand how digital platforms, geopolitical shocks, and algorithmic trade wars are rewriting the rules in real time.
Most people still optimize for cost. The winners now optimize for supply chain resilience.
And that shift? It changes everything.
💡 The core lesson:
Globalization didn’t die. It just switched lanes. 👀💻
Let’s decode the new rules together.
👇 Tap to read the full edition of Polis Doxa: The Transitions Letter and get ahead of the transition.
Last week, I told you how the world is shifting:
→ Trump’s tariffs and cuts destabilized the research economy
→ ReArm Europe rewired funding around defense and resilience
→ Civil innovation is no longer the center — it’s the periphery
But what if you could reposition what you already have?
Not pivot.
Not start over.
Just reframe.
Today, I’m giving you the Dual-Use Repositioning Canvas™ —
the exact tool I use with companies, clusters, and institutions to map strategic alignment in less than 30 minutes.
🎯 It’s one page.
🎯 It’s free for subscribers.
🎯 And it’s going to change how you pitch, plan, and prioritize.
👇 How to download? Just go to the Substack page and look for the Strategic Tools Tab. Then look for the post “Your Free Copy of the Dual-Use Repositioning Canvas™” (Subscriber Access Only)
🪄 1. The Illusion of Collapse
Last week, a CEO I know told me this:
“We built the entire company on low-cost Asian suppliers. Now I feel like we’re watching that whole map burn.”
He’s not alone. From Trump’s new tariffs to the war in Ukraine and pandemic hangovers, everyone’s saying the same thing:
“Globalization is dead.”
But these are not death sentences.
They’re redirections.
Each shock—pandemic, invasion, tariffs—restructured the system. It didn’t end it. (The Guardian, 2025)
🧨 2. The Invisible Globalization: From Shipping to Software
Yes — globalization as we knew it is breaking down.
But…
These “crises” aren’t endings. They’re catalysts. Each one is pushing us into a new architecture of trade, value, and power.
We’re not watching a collapse. We’re watching a REROUTE.
We’re now in the third unbundling, where labor is separated from location.
Digital globalization is outpacing physical trade. Platforms, services, and algorithms are crossing borders faster than containers ever did.
This isn’t deglobalization.
It’s digitization. (Baldwin, 2016)
🎓 3. From Supply Chains to Value Chains
Let’s unpack the myth — and the real transformation.
🧱 Myth: Tariffs and wars are ending globalization.
🧠 Truth: They’re forcing a strategic reconfiguration.
The architecture of globalization has transformed. Here's a comparative overview:
🔁 3.1. Three Shocks That Rewired Globalization
Globalization didn’t collapse — it rerouted. And it did so because of three seismic shocks:
COVID-19 Pandemic: Exposed the fragility of just-in-time supply chains, prompting a reevaluation of global dependencies.
Ukraine Conflict: Highlighted the geopolitical risks inherent in energy and commodity dependencies.
U.S.-China Trade Tensions: Trump escalating tariffs and trade barriers underscored the need for diversified sourcing strategies.
These events didn't dismantle globalization; they catalyzed its evolution towards resilience and diversification.
Each one transformed how businesses and governments think about economic transitions and supply chain resilience.
Each one shifted the map — but not by shrinking it. By rerouting it. (The Guardian, 2025)
🌐 3.2. The Rise of Digital Globalization
We’ve entered the era of digital trade — where platforms, services, and IP replace physical containers as the dominant export.
“The new globalization isn’t about shipping containers. It’s about code and cognition.” (Baldwin, 2016)
Digital flows now exert a greater impact on GDP growth than traditional trade in goods. Services, data, and intellectual property have become central to cross-border economic activity (McKinsey Global Institute, 2016).
We’re exporting:
Code, not cotton
Services, not steel
Platforms, not ports
Digital exports (SaaS, AI tools, digital services) are now the fastest-growing component of cross-border trade.
And that’s not just an economic shift — it’s a new global order.
🔄 3.3. From Supply Chains to Value Chains
The term supply chain no longer captures what’s at stake.
The focus has shifted from linear supply chains to intricate value chains emphasizing innovation, branding, and customer experience.
Control over intangible assets—like data and intellectual property—now defines competitive advantage.
Countries no longer just export products. They plug into roles:
India = backend code
Germany = hardware + compliance
Portugal = niche IP + green-tech
Owning the value layer — the platform, the data, the interface — is now the most strategic move you can make.
What matters now? Owning the high-value layer: data, algorithms, platforms (WTO, 2024).
⚖️ 3.4. Goodbye Ricardo?
Ricardo’s theory of comparative advantage said: even if you’re worse at everything, you can still specialize in what you're relatively best at.
But in a world of algorithmic trade and capital mobility, what wins is not labor — it’s innovation (Grossman & Helpman, 2002).
Ricardo’s theory worked in a world of fixed labor and slow capital.
But today, capital flows instantly. Tech scales exponentially. AI wipes out cost-based advantages.
Comparative advantage is being replaced by technological supremacy.
📌 Technology, not labor cost, is now the #1 driver of global competitiveness. (Davis & Weinstein, 2002)
Welcome to geopolitical risk and business strategy as the new core of trade thinking.
🧭 3.5. China+1 → Global+2
“China+1” was about diversifying manufacturing. Today it’s Global+2 — multilayered, digital-first, risk-aware.
But the new play isn’t just “China + Vietnam.”
It’s: China + Vietnam + nearshore + digital overlay.
Resilient firms now run multi-node, digitally coordinated production ecosystems. (Z2Data, 2023)
🇪🇺 3.6. Can the EU Win This?
Yes — if it embraces its hybrid edge.
The EU is the only bloc integrating:
Green transition 🟢
Digital transition🧠
Values-based trade ⚖️
Europe isn’t building scale. It’s building standards.
And in the long game of globalization, standards win.
The European Green Digital Coalition (European Commission, 2023) shows the way.
Europe's best bet? Become the standards-setter in an unstable world.
📈 4 Strategic Moves to Navigate the Shift
If you build anything, digitize your value layer. Don’t just make something — create a data moat. Build data flows, not just products.
Re-audit your supply chain. Optimize for resilience, not just cost. Stress-test your supply chain like a war game.
Build trade independence. Stop depending on one region — Diversify smartly. Physical + digital + political resilience.
Think like a network. Where can you own an edge in a distributed global system? Where can you orchestrate value?
💬 Here's my take:
The winners of the New Globalization won’t be the cheapest. They won’t be nations. They’ll be networks that move faster than borders.
They’ll be the ones who own the interfaces — the code, the cloud, and the culture.
But I might be wrong.
What’s your take? Drop your thoughts in the comments ⬇️
→ Share this post on Notes
→ Tag me on LinkedIn or Twitter with your critique 🧨
👇 Let’s debate the future — and build clarity together.
🔜 Next in Polis Doxa:
Next week, I’ll talk about The Washington Consensus — what it was, why it failed, and what might replace it in the age of fragmentation and transition.
Don’t miss it.
Also next week I’m opening a limited set of slots for the DUAL-USE Strategy Kickstart™.
It’s a fast-track to turn your Canvas into:
✔️ Repositioned messaging
✔️ AI-enhanced reframing
✔️ Strategic use-case development
✔️ And direct access to the funding map you’re trying to reach
More on that Monday.
For now — use the Canvas.
Print it. Share it. Scribble on it.
Start the shift.
The world didn’t go back to borders. But it didn’t stick with free trade either...
Cast your vote 👇
We’ll reveal the answer in next week’s edition.
🧨 LAST WEEK’S ANSWER: What breaks first in a war economy?
It’s the currency. Every. Single. Time.
From Napoleonic Britain to Nazi Germany, from Iraq to Russia today — war economies can run deficits for years. They can even silence dissent.
But what they can’t silence… is inflation. 🔥
As military spending spikes and productive sectors shrink, import prices rise and domestic trust in money erodes.
Savers flee.
The black market grows.
And once the currency cracks, everything else follows — the budget, the factories, and yes, even the people.
If you want to understand collapse, follow the money. 💸